double POSITIVE Marketing Group, Inc.

In my last post, I gave the Internet leads perspective on where mortgage is as an industry today. Interest rates are low, but consumers can’t qualify for purchase or re-fi loans. Loan officers’ compensation rules have caused mortgage shops to change focus, and a huge pool of consumers for loan amounts under $250K is being ignored. The comparison lead product, which came onto the scene with such great promise, has been unable to provide enough volume. Margins are thin. Doors are closing. In short, there is a lot of stress and anxiety in the market.

Other than that, you might say, everything’s great.

No boom for comparison ads

Three months ago, I predicted that comparison lead buying would scale quickly. Since then, the comparison ad market has stayed flat. The LendingTree product Loan Explorer has been put on hold. I haven’t seen much from LeadPoint, either. They were supposed to have a major comparison lead product as well.

There are still four that dominate the comparison ad market (BankRate, Zillow, Informa, and Google). Their clients are doing well with the comparison leads. Unfortunately, they are complaining that they can’t get enough volume. (See my State of the Union – Part II http://bit.ly/iiltBZ to understand the factors that impact the volume of comparison leads available.) As a result in my estimation, it now looks like comparison ads will make up closer to 25-30% of the total next year, no more.

The state of the sales floor

Something else I predicted has not yet taken effect – but this time, I don’t think I’m wrong. I’m talking about my advice to lenders to divide their sales floor in order to scale.

Right now, I’m seeing shops go one way or the other. I’ve seen a complete reversal with two of the major players in buying lead aggregator leads. Until recently, they were heavy buyers of regular internet leads. Then they shut it off and went 100% comparison ads.

Why? Their conversion rates were dropping on traditional leads. I think they took a good look at the profile of their sales force and felt that, on the out-bound, aggressive side of the sales floor, they were not competitive with Quicken and big internet lead buyers. They lost out. So, to continue to operate in the Internet channel at all, they felt the only way to compete was to move to a low-margin / high volume business. So they publicized their rates, and completely switched over to comparison ads, where their “sales” folks just have to honor the published rates on the ad. BTW, I took some criticism for calling that order taking from some loan officers and managers in my last post. I was not trying to offend anyone on the front lines, just making a point that it is a completely different sale then the aggregator model.

This shift has been successful for both companies. But again, what I keep hearing is that lead buyers can’t get enough volume to meet their demand.

Opportunities in the confusion

So I stand by what I said at the start of Q2. In the long term, mortgage shops will buy both traditional and comparison leads online. To scale the company and hit revenue goals, you simply will have to do both. You’ll divide your sales floor, because you understand that you are dealing with two different types of sales, requiring two different types of sales people.

But you’ll still need to be smart about navigating these changes. A whole lot can still go wrong. I’ll talk about that in my next post probably mid-week.