The article below was sent to me by Sandy Kory of Media Venture Partners.

In three years desktops will be irrelevant - Google sales chief
http://www.siliconrepublic.com/news/article/15446/business/in-three-years-desktops-will-be-irrelevant-google-sales-chief

Here is my reply, my thoughts, and my position:

I think that the Eric Schmidt quote is valid if not perfect, but mobile means portable, not best-possible-interface-experience.

I read the article at my desk while eating my lunch salad.  I doubt I would’ve done the same on a mobile screen.

I think the article and the quotes are missing a few fundamentals of human nature.

1. Information workers actually like to SIT DOWN during a good chunk of the work day.

2. If you’re going to sit down, you’re going to sit at a desk.

3. If you’re sitting at a desk, a mobile screen is an inadequate (if not ridiculous) experience.

If the article focused on the desktop BOX, I can then see the trajectory much better.  I can certainly envision a day in the next ten years where the iPhone is more powerful than a fully-loaded Dell Server (processing, memory, storage, etc.), but still needs to be mobile - hence a small screen.  Perhaps the video display will be a projector onto a wall, or perhaps a Bluetooth 10.0 connection to a monitor/keyboard while the iPhone stays in your pocket, but when it comes to screen size for a seated user, bigger is better.  Just ask TV manufacturers.  Same goes for full-size keyboards.

One of the premises of the article that should be explored more, however, is that almost all PC’s (and most Macs) are not good LIVE communication devices (voice or voice+video). 

Sure, you can kluge your way through with IM, Skype, iChat, or something similar but until a computer is a standard/ubiquitous LIVE communication device, it will never be good for selling something to a consumer.  Mobile devices, however, by virtue are first and foremost LIVE communication devices (which you can sell something to a consumer using).

Some of the reasons Internet lead data capture has helped catapult the growth of lead gen is because it’s free capture (”outsource” any labor cost of the capture to the consumer) and the captured data allows for filtering and segmented pricing.

Most Pay-per-Call players do not have any additional data and therefore cannot offer filtering or segmented pricing, which is the main reason why Internet lead gen is bigger than Pay-per-Call by orders of magnitude.

DoublePositive merges the best of these worlds.  Our platform can accept LIVE inbound calls (from perhaps a “Click-to-Call for More Information” offer on a mobile phone).  We can stop the call with one of our call center agents, capture additional data (for filtering and price segmenting), and then transfer the live call and the data to the advertiser/lead-buyer.  The end user gets the advantage of a LIVE call and also the filtered/segmented data.  Of course, we also confirm consumer interest/intent.

I’m biased but I think we’re nicely positioned to help mobile advertising really command the highest and best economic use of the devices and their inventory.

I’m eager for a desktop in my pocket or my belt-clip.

SPF

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The DoublePositive LIVE Hot Transfers Workshop for Lead Buyers & Lead Sellers:

http://www.docstoc.com/docs/26897401/DoublePositive-LeadsCon-Las-Vegas-Presentation-2010

A picture of the LIVE workshop panel discussion (with a killer slide in the background):

http://www.flickr.com/photos/seanfenlon/4382869517/sizes/l/

Blog coverage of LeadsCon 2010:

http://blogsearch.google.com/blogsearch?hl=en&source=hp&q=leadscon

LeadsCon 2010 Twitter status updates:

http://twitter.com/#search?q=leadscon

Pictures from LeadsCon 2010  on Flickr:

http://www.flickr.com/search/?q=leadscon&s=rec

Best word to describe LeadsCon 2010:

Incredible

Cheers (until LeadsCon east) to all who attended!

SPF

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DoublePositive posted a Twitter status update merely seconds ago about LeadsCon.

Now when I perform a LeadsCon search with the hash tag, I see the actual Twitter post:

This is all very interesting.

http://blogs.doublepositive.com/2009/12/03/google-alerts-very-interesting/

SPF

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I have no idea, but here’s my guess:

Rock star, CEO, CXO, President, Founder, SVP, EVP, or VP - 60%

All other titles - 40%

So those are the odds.

The over/under is now 1,700.

Did I mention LeadsCon is in Las Vegas?

SPF

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This screenshot below is evidence as to why Google is excellent at everything EXCEPT predictions and forecasts:

Something tells me that the “forecast” area shaded above will be very wrong in the first few months of 2010.

Forecasts are difficult.  Especially those that have to do with the future.

All I can say now is that I am even more excited than ever to visit New Orleans for the very first time in May 2010 for the TARGUSinfo inaugural “Scoring Summit”:

http://twitter.com/OLQS/status/6533499673

Speaking of Twitter, bummer that it could not handle the exuberant Super Bowl overload from its users, otherwise I would be Tweeting this rather than blogging about it (like last year):

http://twitter.com/seanfenlon/status/1168717469

SPF

p.s. Bravo to the Saints, but also Bravo to Champions and Athletes everywhere.  This was even a huge moral win for the Manning family.  Archie Manning (Peyton’s and Eli’s dad) was THE BEST quarterback ever on THE WORSE team in the NFL.  The Saints winning the super bowl is a huge win for Archie:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archie_Manning

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Back in 2002, Josh Gray invested everything he had to buy Webclients.net, a lead generation firm that had grown to ~$10MM in revenue but was losing money.

As the new CEO Josh, focused like a laser on increasing yield (particular on non-monetized inventory) and grew the sales and profits of the business by orders of magnitude.

In June of 2005, Webclients was acquired by ValueClick (NSDQ: VLCK) for $141 Million.  The Webclients business remained in Harrisburg, PA and became the lead generation platform for all ValueClick lead generation activities.  Josh Gray continued to run the business until stepping down a couple of years ago.

This was right around the time that ValueClick was getting into hot water with federal regulators with respect to incentive-ized offers to consumers.  All of these matters have been since settled with regulators, but it all apparently left a bad taste in the mouth of ValueClick.

In a press release issued yesterday, it was announced that ValueClick divested Webclients:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ValueClick-Announces-bw-2903975847.html?x=0&.v=1

The transaction price of $45 Million (and seller-financed by ValueClick) shows a substantial haircut to the price paid back in 2005.

The big question in my mind is who is the buyer? The announcement only names the buyer as anonymous.  Could it be Josh Gray again?  Could he be going for round-two in buying a struggling Webclients and turn it around for another mega-sale?  If so, why be anonymous?  Why would any buyer of Webclients be anonymous for that matter?  Enquiring minds and all that.

According to the analysts, the Webclients business did not appear to be struggling. 

ValueClick CEO Tom Vadnais does not offer much clarity in his explanation:

“Given the growth and synergy opportunities in our core businesses and the acquisition opportunities in the market, the time is right to divest Web Clients”

I suppose all will be explained in time, but I’d love to see other speculations as to who the buyer was and why.

SPF

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I am a personal fan of LeadsCon and this entire blog is as well.  Just ask Google:

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&as_q=leadscon&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&num=100&lr=&as_filetype=&ft=i&as_sitesearch=blogs.doublepositive.com

LeadsCon 2010 speakers were just announced this week:

http://www.leadscon.com/leadscon-las-vegas-2010/full-conference-program.html

Here’s a partial list of the Rock Star speakers on the list:

• Doug Lebda
• Dave Wengel
• Matt Coffin
• Marc Diana
• Steve Jillings
• Payam Zamani

Please join us for our Hot Transfers workshop @ 4pm on Tuesday the 23rd.

Our presentation will be highly-entertaining, and we also have some very important news to announce.

Look forward to seeing you all then.

SPF

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Lala hosts the most online music.

Apple recently bought Lala.

Google uses Apple’s Lala when you search for a song on Google.

It works fabulously well.  If you haven’t already, try it for your favorite song.

If you don’t have a favorite song, just ask Google for one.

Oh wait…

I just tried that.

My Google search query was “best song”

I did add the following NEGATIVE keywords so that they did not appear in the results:

• -blog
• -decade
• -year
• -directory
• -today
• -week
• -instruments
• -campus
• -school
• -organizer
• -game
• -video
• -summer
• -MP3
• -free
• -cheap
• -popular

Here is what the final query string looks like:

http://bit.ly/6gO96Z

Hmmm… nothing even there worth listening to.

Bottom line is that Lala, Apple, and now Google are excellent at delivering music.

Delivering music advice is a completely different animal.

Jury is out with Apple, for the time being, I give up with Google.

SPF

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Happy New Year Everyone!

I am going to try and do a repeat performance to last-year’s real-time blogging at the stroke of midnight.

I’m using Google again as the clock (EST):

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&source=hp&q=time

I should concede that Google is certainly cyclical if not bullish on Predictions in general:

No matter.  Personally, I’m always bullish about predictions. But then again, I’m biased.

Here are my Predictions for 2010:

1.  2010 is the Year of the (Internet) Device and of the (Internet) Transfer

iPod, iPhone, iPad = LIVE Internet Communication devices. DoublePositive handles LIVE communications with consumers better than anyone and transfers calls over voice lines and data over Internet connections.

2.  2010 is the Year of the Musician

The Greatest Musicians of our Generation Go Device-less in 2010:

• Pat Metheny (Orchestrion)
• Bobby McFerrin (As Usual)
• Guitar Hero & Rock Band Champions

3.  Some Great Internet Companies Go Public in 2010

• QuinStreet
• Glam Media/Demand Media
• LiveOps
• Etc.

4.  Some Great Internet Companies DO NOT Have an IPO in 2010

• Facebook
• LinkedIn
• Twitter

5.  Food Rules the Day

Most adults in 2010 will take a hard look at their own body weight. They will also come to the realization that diet affects this number far more than exercise. However, Cooking is an art with many artists. Grocery shopping, prepping (a la sous chef), serving, and cleaning is not art and is not fun. The process of finding a place that will sell you food that is good for you and your family will rise to new heights in 2010.

6.  The Ultimate Currency in 2010

A lot of debate will circulate about the ultimate currency of Gold/Money (from many countries). Also, the evergreen debate that Happiness/Laughter is the ultimate currency in the entire universe will continue.

However, my prediction for the Ultimate Currency in 2010 will be the Consistency/Predictability of People/Humans.

7.  Avatar dominates movie chatter but never eclipses Star Wars

I understand that James Cameron is a fan of George Lucas and has always been chasing him professionally. Avatar will not allow Cameron to eclipse Lucas. The technology and science is far superior in every capacity, but the art of the story line does not even hold a candle.  Lucas simply uses The Force better.

8.  A new "simple" philosophy is taught to youths that gains traction:

• Go to school - stay in school
• Get married - stay married
• Get a job - keep a job

9.  LIVE STILL MATTERS

Please see Predictions for 2009. Nuff said.

10.  2010 is the best year in years for all of us in the FREE-est and most-TRANSPARENT country on the planet.

The USA economy will find a "New Normal" of 10% unemployment will continue to prosper. However, most working adults will "feel" this prosperity in 2010. 2010 is the year.

Cheers all!

SPF

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Any self-respecting-predicting-blogger always needs to review his past predictions before moving on with the new ones.

Let’s take a look at my Predictions for 2009:

http://blogs.doublepositive.com/2009/01/01/goodbye-2008-review-2008-predictions/

Oops, wait. That was 2008.

Here is 2009:

http://blogs.doublepositive.com/2009/01/01/hello-2009-predictions-for-2009/

Here’s what I predicted.

1. Things Changed

Yup. Nailed that one.

2. People and Businesses Will Try Harder than Ever to Avoid Pain

Yup. Nailed that one.

3. People and Businesses Will Try Harder than Ever to Gain Pleasure

Yup. Nailed that one.

4. "Other" People in our lives become more clearly classified as either People, Friends, Community, Network, Associates, Colleagues, Traffic.

Tough to be objective about this one, so let’s see what Google says:

Hmmm. I know I’m biased, but I think I’m right on this one.

5. The "Best" Athletes Emerge

This prediction-headline doesn’t say enough. The rest of the prediction was as follows:

2008 was the year of the athlete. Tiger Woods (winning the U.S. Open on a broken leg), Michael Phelps (winning 8 Gold Medals and setting a new world record), the Redeem Team, etc.). However, something tells me the REAL athlete stories won’t break until 2009. No clue who or what they might be, but my Spidey-senses are tingling on this one.

Wow, I named Tiger Wood and Michael Phelps. Both fell hard in the headlines in 2009 for different reasons. I’m equally shocked that the redeem team (of whom I was critical of for poor teamwork) has "Emerged" as the "Best" behaving athletes.

I’m biased but I want to take credit for nailing this one, but I won’t take credit for it in the total since it is far too subjective.

6. Internet Collaborative "Art" is officially born.

Yup. Nailed this one. Guitar Hero. Rock Band. YouTube. It’s now here and it’s awesome. Nuff said.

http://www.amazon.com/Maestro-Surprising-Story-Leading-Listening/dp/1591842883

7. Science Wins

Easy prediction, so I don’t deserve any points/credit for this one either.

It’s simple.

Science scales. Art doesn’t.

8. Mobile Explodes (but not Mobile Advertising. yet)

iPhone changed everything in mobile. iPad may do the same:

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&source=hp&q=ipad

The very word "mobile" now sounds outmoded if not antiquated.

Specific to the prediction, I call it a push. Ask any consumer about Mobile Advertising in 2009 and nobody ever noticed a blip on the radar. However on the B2B side of that same question, we witnessed the smartest company ever (Google) acquire AdMob for a reported 20X top line revenue (for a not-profitable business). Shortly thereafter, the biggest VC Fund on the planet (NEA) invested heavy in Millennial Media.

So, maybe "Mobile" did explode this year.

I am going to count this as a miss.

9. LIVE Matters

Yup. Nailed this one. I know personally, I shook more hands and looked into more eyes this year than ever before in my life.

10. Don’t Panic. Be Happy.

Yup. Nailed this one. At least I did what I predicted.

All totaled, I give myself 8 out of 10. A solid B.

Now on to 2010 and BEYOND!

SPF

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